Let p be a real number with 0 < p < 1. When and have a child, this child is a boy with probability p and a girl with probability 1 − p, independent of the gender of previous children. Lindsay and Simon stop having children as soon as they have a child that has the same gender as their first child.

Jadon Stein

Jadon Stein

Answered question

2022-09-06

Let p be a real number with 0 < p < 1. When and have a child, this child is a boy with probability p and a girl with probability 1 p, independent of the gender of previous children. Lindsay and Simon stop having children as soon as they have a child that has the same gender as their first child.

Answer & Explanation

Jaylen Mcmahon

Jaylen Mcmahon

Beginner2022-09-07Added 16 answers

Step 1
The possibilities are B G k B and G B k G and the chances of neither occurring are zero. Also, these possibilities are mutually exclusive.
The probability of the first is p 2 ( 1 p ) k and the probability of the second is ( 1 p ) 2 p k .
Then the expected value is k = 0 ( k + 2 ) ( p 2 ( 1 p ) k + ( 1 p ) 2 p k ).
For | x | < 1, you have k = 0 x k = 1 1 x , and differentiating both sides will give an expression for k = 1 k x k 1 .
Note that k = 0 ( 2 ) ( p 2 ( 1 p ) k + ( 1 p ) 2 p k ) can be computed purely by the fact that the various events are mutually exclusive and that they essentially cover the whole space (it is possible that poor Lindsay will have an infinite number of children).
Saige Barton

Saige Barton

Beginner2022-09-08Added 15 answers

Step 1
We use a conditional expectation argument. Given the first is a boy, (1 child already) the expected number of additional trials (children, they are a trial) until another boy comes is 1 p . Here we used a standard fact about the expectation of a geometrically distributed random variable with parameter p
Step 2
And given that the first child is a girl, the expected number of additional trials until a girl comes is 1 1 p . Thus the total expected number of children is
p ( 1 + 1 p ) + ( 1 p ) ( 1 + 1 1 p ) .
This simplifies to 3.

Do you have a similar question?

Recalculate according to your conditions!

New Questions in Discrete math

Ask your question.
Get an expert answer.

Let our experts help you. Answer in as fast as 15 minutes.

Didn't find what you were looking for?