Lipossig

2020-12-29

An option on land in Alaska was bought by an oil company. The following prior probabilities were assigned by preliminary geologic studies.

$PP(\text{high-quality oil})=.50P(\text{medium-quality oil})=.20P(\text{no oil})=.30$

a. What is the probability of finding oil?

b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test follow.

$P(\text{soil | high-quality oil})=.20P(\text{soil | medium-quality oil})=.80P(\text{soil | no oil})=.20$

How should the firm interpret the soil test? What are the revised probabilities, and what is the new probability of finding oil?

Alannej

Skilled2020-12-30Added 104 answers

Given:

$P(\text{no oil})=0.30$

a. Complement rule:

$P(\text{not}A)=1-P(A)$

Use the complement rule:

$P(\text{oil})=1-P(\text{no oil})=1-0.30=0.70$

b. We are most likely to find the type of soil, when we have found medium-quality oil.

The probabilities remain unchanged> becase the given probability only effect the probability of finding soil and not the probability of finding oil.

a. Complement rule:

Use the complement rule:

b. We are most likely to find the type of soil, when we have found medium-quality oil.

The probabilities remain unchanged> becase the given probability only effect the probability of finding soil and not the probability of finding oil.

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