Gender gap Candidates for political office realize that different levels of supp

SchachtN

SchachtN

Answered question

2021-10-25

Gender gap Candidates for political office realize that different levels of support among men and women may be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of an election. One candidate finds that 52% of 473 men polled say they will vote for him, but only 45% of the 522 women in the poll express support.
a) Write a 95% confidence interval for the percent of male voters who may vote for this candidate. Interpret your interval.
b) Write and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the percent of female voters who may vote for him.
c) Do the intervals for males and females overlap? What do you think this means about the gender gap?
d) Find a 95% confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of males and females who will vote for this candidate. Interpret your interval.
e) Does this interval contain zero? What does that mean?
f) Why do the results in parts c and e seem contradic- tory? If we want to see if there is a gender gap among voters with respect to this candidate, which is the cor- rect approach? Why?

Answer & Explanation

Ayesha Gomez

Ayesha Gomez

Skilled2021-10-26Added 104 answers

Step 1
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Given info:
One survey was done on gender gap in voting. It was seen that 52% of 473 men support him but 45% of 522 women support him.
Step 2
a) Calculation:
For finding the confidence interval using z-intervals the assumption and conditions should met.
The assumption and conditions for inference:
(i) Randomization condition: Though it is not given that the sample is random but it can be assumed that the poll was random.
(ii) Independent group assumption: The two groups are independent for different gender.
(iii) Success/failure condition: Here for men npˆ=246nqˆ=473246=227 and for women npˆ=235nqˆ=522235=287 All are greater than 10.
Hence, all conditions are satisfied for the inference.
Step 3
Confidence interval:
Software procedure:
Step by step procedure to obtain the confidence interval using the MINITAB software:
Choose Stat > Basic Statistics > 1 Proportion.
Choose Summarized data.
In Number of events, enter 246 In Number of trials, enter 473
Click Options. Under Alternative, and choose not equal.
Click OK in each dialog box.
Output using the MINITAB software is given below:
Test and Cl for One Proportion
Method
p: event proportion
Normal approximation method is used for this analysis.
Descriptive Statistics
NEventSample p95%CI for p4732460.520085(0.475,0.565)
Test
Null hypothesis H0:p=0.5
Alternative hypothesis H1:p0.5
From the MINITAB output, the 95% confidence interval is (0.475, 0.565)
Interpretation:
The 95% confidence interval for the percent of male voters who may vote for this candidate is (0.475, 0.565) means that there is 95% confident that the percentage of men who will vote him lies between 47.5% and 45.5%.
Step 4
(b) Confidence interval:
Software procedure:
Step by step procedure to obtain the confidence interval using the MINITAB software:
Choose Stat > Basic Statistics > 1 Proportion.
Choose Summarized data.
In Number of events, enter 235 In Number of trials, enter 522
Click Options. Under Alternative, and choose not equal.
Click OK in each dialog box.
Output using the MINITAB software is given below:
Test and CI for One Proportion
Method
p: event proportion
Normal approximation method is used for this analysis.
Descriptive Statistics
NEventSample p95%CI for p5222350.450192(0.4075,0.4929)
From the MINITAB output, the 95% confidence interval is (0.4075, 0.4929)
Interpretation:
The 95% confidence interval for the percent of female voters who may vote for this candidate is (0.4070, 0.4929) means that there is 95% confident that the percentage of men who will vote him lies between 40.75% and 49.29%.
Step 5
(c) From part a, the 95% confidence interval for the percent of male voters who may vote for this candidate is (0.475, 0.565)
From part a, the 95% confidence interval for the percent of female voters who may vote for this candidate is (0.4070, 0.4929)
From the two outputs, it can be said that the confidence intervals overlap.
Hence, there is no evidence to support that the proportion of male and female will differ for voting him.

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