Modelling wealth with a Pareto distribution: how do I estimate the parameters? I wish to create a function that will estimate the wealth of a person in the United States. It would be used to make a table with each decile and their estimated wealth.

sorrowandsongto

sorrowandsongto

Answered question

2022-10-28

Modelling wealth with a Pareto distribution: how do I estimate the parameters?
I wish to create a function that will estimate the wealth of a person in the United States. It would be used to make a table with each decile and their estimated wealth.
This estimate will be based on very rudimentary data, and is only for personal interest. The data is:
- The total wealth of the bottom 90% is equal to the total wealth of the top 0.1%.
- Both proportions have 22% of the total wealth.
- The total wealth under the distribution is $80 trillion.
- The total population is 160 million households.
Given this data, how would I create parameter estimates for the exponent and scale of a pareto distribution? What would be f(x) where x is from (0,1), and the solution is the wealth of someone richer than that proportion of people? For example f(0.1) is someone richer than or equal to exactly 10% of the least wealthy, and could equal 1,000 dollars. F(0.5) is the median wealth, and could be 200,000 dollars. F(0.9999) is richer than 99.99% and would be somewhere in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.

Answer & Explanation

RamPatWeese2w

RamPatWeese2w

Beginner2022-10-29Added 15 answers

Step 1
First of all, the Pareto distribution is defined on non-negative real numbers. Thus it doesn't really make sense to force it to the interval (0,1).
Suppose, however, you knew the wealth of two people: someone at the 90th percentile and the 99.90th percentile. Then, if you assume that wealth is truly Pareto-distributed, you could take a method-of-moments approach.
Letting A be the wealth of the 90th percentile person, and B the wealth of the 99.90th percentile person, and F(x) be the cumulative distribution function of a Pareto( x m , α) random variable, we have that
F ( x ) = 1 ( x m x ) α F 1 ( y ) = x m ( 1 y ) 1 / α x m = x ( 1 y ) 1 / α
Step 2
From two statements that you provided, we have that the person with wealth B has greater wealth than 78% of the population, and that the person with wealth A has greater wealth than 22% of the population. You could then estimate the Pareto distribution parameters by solving the equations
x m = A ( 1 0.22 ) 1 / α
x m = B ( 1 0.78 ) 1 / α

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