At fault The car insurance company in Exercise 8 believes that about 0.5% of dri

opatovaL

opatovaL

Answered question

2021-09-25

At fault The car insurance company in Exercise 8 believes that about 0.5% of drivers have an at-fault accidentduring a given year. Suppose the company insures 1355 drivers in that city.
a) What are the mean and standard deviation of the number who may have at-fault accidents?
b) Can you describe the distribution of these accidents with a Normal model? Explain.

Answer & Explanation

Jaylen Fountain

Jaylen Fountain

Skilled2021-09-26Added 169 answers

Step 1
a.It is given that in exercise 8, there is 0.5% chance that the drivers have an at-fault accident during a given year. In the city, the company insures 1,355 drivers.
Properties of Bernoulli trials:
In each trial there will be only two possible outcomes, success and failure.
The probability of success for each trial is same.
Each trial is independent to each other.
10% condition for Bernoulli trials:
If the sample size is less than 10% of the population size, then is can be said that the Bernoulli trials must be independent.
Binomial probability for Bernoulli trials:
The number of successes in a specified number of Bernoulli trials is described by Binomial model.
If the number of trials is n, with the probability of success is p and the probability of failure is q=1p, and X be the event of the number of success in n independent trials, then the binomial probability model is defined as,
P(X=x)={(nx)pxqnx,x=0,1,,n;0<p<1;q=1p0,otherwise
Step 2
With mean is μ=np and standard deviation is σ=npq.
It is denoted by XBinom(n,p).
Let X be the number of at-fault accidents.
Checking the Bernoulli properties:
In this problem there are only two possible outcome that accident and no accident. Hence 1st condition is satisfied.
The probability that the drivers have an at-fault accident during a given year is p=0.005. Hence, 2nd condition is also satisfied.
It can be assumed that 1,355 drivers is less than 10% of the whole population of drivers.
Hence, using 10% condition rule, the independence condition is also satisfied.
Hence, the condition of drivers can be considered as Bernoulli trials.
Hence, the distribution of number of at-fault accidents follows Binom(1,355,0.005).
Mean:
μ=np
=1,355×0.005
=6.77
Standard deviation:
σ=npq
=1,355×0.005×(10.005)
=6.7411
=2.6
Hence, the mean and the standard deviation of the number who may have at-fault accidents are 6.775 and 2.6.
Step 3
b. Normal approximation from Binomial distribution:
The success and failure condition:
If np10 and nq10, then the binomial distribution can be approximated as Normal distribution with mean μ=np and variance σ2=npq that is, N(np,npq).
Checking success and failure condition:
Here,
np=1,355×0.005=6.775<10 and
nq=1,355(10.005)=1,348.225>10
Hence, the success and failure condition is not satisfied.
Hence, the distribution of number of accidents cannot be explained by Normal model.

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