Trent Carpenter
2021-09-15
Bentley Leach
Skilled2021-09-16Added 109 answers
Step 1
Given : A geological study indicates that an exploratory oil well should strike oil with probability 0.2.
Define random variable X denotes the number of oil wells drilled it takes to observe the third oil strike.
Striking probability :
Since, each oil well has a constant 0.2 probability of being an oil strike. It is reasonable to assume that X has a negative binomial distribution.
X follows a negative binomial distribution with parameters (number of oil strikes needed) and (probability of observing an oil strike).
Notation:
The PMF is given as:
Step 2
(a) Given:
Using negative binomial probability formula,
Evaluate:
Probability that the first strike comes on the third well drilled is 0.128.
(b) Given:
Using negative binomial probability formula,
Evaluate:
Probability that the third strike comes on the seventh well drilled is 0.0492.
Step 3
(c) 1. The experiment consists of a sequence of independent trials.
2. Each trial can result in either a success (S) or a failure (F).
3. The probability of success is constant from trial to trial, so P(S on trial i)
4. The experiment continues (trials are performed) until a total of r successes have been observed, where r is a specified positive integer.
(d) Given:
The mean of a negative binomial distributed variable is r divided by p:
Mean
The variance of a negative binomial distributed variable is divided by .
Variance =60
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