One prominent physician claims that 70% of those with lung c

Alfred Martin

Alfred Martin

Answered question

2021-12-16

According to a renowned expert, heavy smokers make up 70% of lung cancer patients. If his claim is true, calculate the likelihood 

(a) That 10 of these people were recently admitted to 

a hospital.
A majority smoke heavily (more than half).
(b) There are exactly 4 heavy smokers.
(c) Less than two people do not smoke.

Answer & Explanation

Linda Birchfield

Linda Birchfield

Beginner2021-12-17Added 39 answers

 (a) Find the likelihood that more than half of 10 of these recently hospitalized patients are heavy smokers.
The following calculation shows the likelihood that, out of 10 such patients who were recently admitted to a hospital, more than half are heavy smokers:
Let X represent the proportion of recently admitted patients who smoke heavily and who have a binomial distribution with a success rate of 0.70 and a sample size of 10 patients.
That is, n=10,p=0.70,q=0.30(=10.30) 
It follows that, for the probability distribution,
P(X=x)=(nx)px(1p)nxZSK;herePSKx=0,1,2,...,n for 0p1 
where n is the number of tries and p is the likelihood that each experiment will be successful.
P(X>5)=1P(X5) 
To determine the chance that x = 5, use Excel.
To get the P-value, follow the instructions:
1. Open EXCEL 
2. Go to Formula bar. 
3. In formula bar enter the function as“=BINOMDIST” 
4. Enter the number of success as 5. 
5. Enter the Trails as 10. 
6. Enter the probability as 0.70. 
7. Enter the cumulative as True. 
8. Click enter. 
EXCEL output: 
The Excel output indicates that the P-value is 0.1503.
P(X>5)=1P(X5) 
=10.1503 
=0.8497 
There is a 0.8497 percent chance that out of 10 of these individuals who were recently admitted to a hospital, more than half are habitual smokers.
(b) Find the likelihood that, among 10 such patients who were just admitted to a hospital, 4 are heavy smokers.
The following calculation shows the likelihood that, out of 10 such patients who were just admitted to a hospital, exactly 4 are heavy smokers:
To determine the likelihood that x equals 4, use Excel.
To get the P-value, follow the instructions:
1. Open EXCEL 
2. Go to Formula bar. 
3. In formula bar enter the function as“=BINOMDIST” 
4. Enter the number of success as 4. 
5. Enter the Trails as 10. 
6. Enter the probability as 0.70. 
7. Enter the cumulative as False 
8. Click enter. 
EXCEL output: 
The P-value, as shown by the Excel result, is 0.0368.
There is a 0.0368 percent chance that out of 10 recently hospitalized patients, 4 are heavy smokers.
(c) Find the possibility that less than two of every 10 of these recently hospitalized patients who are not smokers.
The following calculation shows the likelihood that, out of 10 patients recently admitted to a hospital, fewer than 2 are non-smokers:
Excel may be used to calculate the likelihood that x = 1.
To get the P-value, follow the instructions:
1. Open EXCEL 
2. Go to Formula bar. 
3. In formula bar enter the function as“=BINOMDIST” 
4. Enter the number of success as 1. 
5. Enter the Trails as 10. 
6. Enter the probability as 0.30. 
7. Enter the cumulative as True. 
8. Click enter. 
EXCEL output: 
The P-value obtained from the Excel output is 0.1493.
There is a 0.1493 percent chance that out of 10 of these individuals who were recently admitted to a hospital, fewer than two are nonsmokers.

Charles Benedict

Charles Benedict

Beginner2021-12-18Added 32 answers

Step 1
Given that :
Let X be the number of patients who are heavy smokers.
CBinomial(10, 0.70)
Step 2
a) P(x>5)=x=610(10x)(0.70)x(0.30)10x
=(106)(0.70)6(0.30)4+(107)(0.70)7(0.30)3
+(108)(0.70)8(0.30)2+(109)(0.70)9(0.30)1+(1010)(0.70)10(0.30)0
=0.20012+0.26683+0.23347+0.12106+0.02825
=0.8497
Step 2
b) P(X=4)=(104)(0.70)4(0.30)6
=0.0368
c) P(X<2)=P(x=0)+P(X=1)
=(100)(0.70)0(0.30)10+(101)(0.70)1(0.30)9
=0.0000059+0.0001378
=0.0001437

nick1337

nick1337

Expert2021-12-28Added 777 answers

Solution: 5.7p=0.7
a) For n=10, P(X<5)=P(X4)=0.0474
b) For n=20, P(X<10)=P(X9)=0.0171

Don Sumner

Don Sumner

Skilled2023-06-17Added 184 answers

Step 1:
(a) The likelihood that 10 of these people were recently admitted to a hospital:
Let's assume there are a total of 100 lung cancer patients. According to the expert, heavy smokers make up 70% of the lung cancer patients, which means there are 70 heavy smokers.
To calculate the likelihood that exactly 10 of these people were recently admitted to a hospital, we can use the binomial probability formula:
P(X=k)=(nk)·pk·q(nk)
where:
- P(X=k) is the probability of getting exactly k successes,
- (nk) is the binomial coefficient, representing the number of ways to choose k successes from n trials,
- p is the probability of success (likelihood of being recently admitted to a hospital for a heavy smoker),
- q is the probability of failure (likelihood of not being recently admitted to a hospital for a heavy smoker), which is equal to 1 - p,
- n is the total number of trials (number of heavy smokers).
In this case, we want to calculate the probability of 10 successes (k = 10) out of 70 trials (n = 70). Since we don't have the exact value of p, we'll assume an arbitrary value between 0 and 1.
For example, let's assume p = 0.5 (50% chance of being recently admitted to a hospital for a heavy smoker). Then the probability becomes:
P(X=10)=(7010)·(0.5)10·(10.5)7010
Calculating this probability will give you the likelihood that exactly 10 of the heavy smokers were recently admitted to a hospital.
Step 2:
(b) The likelihood that there are exactly 4 heavy smokers:
To calculate the likelihood that exactly 4 of the lung cancer patients are heavy smokers, we need to use the binomial coefficient formula again.
Assuming there are 100 lung cancer patients and heavy smokers make up 70% of them (70 heavy smokers), we want to calculate the probability of having 4 heavy smokers (k = 4) out of 100 patients (n = 100).
P(X=4)=(1004)·(0.7)4·(10.7)1004
This will give you the likelihood that exactly 4 of the lung cancer patients are heavy smokers.
Step 3:
(c) The likelihood that less than two people do not smoke:
To calculate the likelihood that less than two people do not smoke, we need to consider the complementary probability of having two or more people who do not smoke.
Assuming there are 100 lung cancer patients and heavy smokers make up 70% of them (70 heavy smokers), the probability of a person being a heavy smoker is p = 0.7.
The probability of a person not smoking is q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3.
To calculate the likelihood that less than two people do not smoke, we can sum the probabilities of having 0 and 1 non-smokers:
P(X<2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)
P(X=0)=(1000)·(0.3)0·(0.7)1000
P(X=1)=(1001)·(0.3)1·(0.7)1001
Calculating these probabilities and summing them will give you the likelihood that less than two people do not smoke.
Vasquez

Vasquez

Expert2023-06-17Added 669 answers

(a) To calculate the likelihood that 10 of these people were recently admitted to a hospital, we need to use the binomial probability formula.
The formula for binomial probability is:
P(X=k)=(nk)·pk·(1p)nk
Where:
- P(X=k) is the probability of getting exactly k successes,
- (nk) is the number of ways to choose k successes from n trials,
- p is the probability of success on a single trial, and
- n is the total number of trials.
In this case, n represents the total number of heavy smokers, which is 70% of the lung cancer patients. Let's assume there are N lung cancer patients, then n=0.7N.
Since a majority smoke heavily, we can assume p=0.5.
Now we can calculate the probability:
P(10 people admitted)=(0.7N10)·0.510·(10.5)0.7N10
(b) To calculate the likelihood that exactly 4 heavy smokers are among the lung cancer patients, we can again use the binomial probability formula:
P(X=4)=(0.7N4)·0.54·(10.5)0.7N4
(c) To calculate the likelihood that less than two people do not smoke, we can use the complement rule. The probability of less than two people not smoking is equal to 1 minus the probability of two or more people not smoking.
P(less than two people do not smoke)=1P(two or more people do not smoke)
The probability of two or more people not smoking can be calculated as:
P(two or more people do not smoke)=(N0)·0.30·0.7N+(N1)·0.31·0.7N1
Remember to substitute N with the total number of lung cancer patients.

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