Hi, I'm unsure whether I'm oversimplifying this problem. A zoo

Dilemma1

Dilemma1

Answered question

2022-02-27

Hi,I'm unsure whether I'm oversimplifying this problem.A zoo records 94,000 visits annually from the residents of a particular region. The region has a population of 67,000 inhabitants. From this, calculate the probability that any individual within the population visits the zoo at any given month of the year.Calculation:94,000 / 67,000 = 1.41.4 is the average visit rate per resident1.4 / 12 = .12Is the probability that an individual from the population visits the zoo on any given month therefore 12%?Can anybody please provide a bit of guidance?Much appreciated.

Answer & Explanation

star233

star233

Skilled2022-03-20Added 403 answers

you've correctly calculated P that a given individual from the population visits the zoo on a given month, assuming random distribution of single visits max per month. But you said, "an individual" which is vague. The problem did ask, "any individual", however, which is "Quite a Different Beast", so to speak. Technically, that means quite exactly any individual (in logical terms the broadest inclusion is thus triggered); the negation of that is that no individual visits the zoo on the given month. So, per strict logic again, you would have to calculate (1-0.12)67000 [i.e., P(particular individual not visiting, over all individuals)] ~ 5.9*10-3820. That's only approximate; actually you should calculate on the daily basis rather than monthly, but you get the idea.

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