What is the probability an event occurs, given the event occurs exactly N times in the next M trials?

Audrey Arnold

Audrey Arnold

Answered question

2022-11-05

What is the probability an event occurs, given the event occurs exactly N times in the next M trials?
Assume the probably an event occurs are equal, but what if the probabilities were unequal for each trial?

Answer & Explanation

smeachtaczm

smeachtaczm

Beginner2022-11-06Added 14 answers

Step 1
I believe you have the binomial distribution in mind, and are asking that in a binomial experiment, if success is obtained N times in M trials, what is the probability p of success in a single trial.
As you, know, if the probability of success in a single trial is p, P(N successes in M trials) = = ( M N ) p N ( 1 p ) M N
Step 2
That is, given p, you can compute the probability of N successes in M trials.
We can't do the reverse: given N successes in M trials, we can't find a specific p, because for 0 < p < 1 there will always be some probability of achieving the result.

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