Archeological evidence indicates that the ancient (pre-Roman) Etruscans played dice using a dodecahedral die having 12 pentagonal faces numbered 1 through 12 (figure above). One could simulate such a die by drawing a random card from a deck of cards numbered 1 through k. for your own personal value of k, begin with the largest digit in the sum of the digits in your student ID number. This is your value of k unless this digit is less than 5, in which case subtract it from 10 to get your own value of k. a.) John and Mary draw alternately from a deck of shuffled k cards. The first one to draw an ace-the card numbered one- wins. Assume that John draws first. Use the formula for the sum of a geometric series to calculate (both a rational number and a four place decimal) the probability J that J
Leila Jennings
Answered question
2022-07-22
Geometric series with probability Archeological evidence indicates that the ancient (pre-Roman) Etruscans played dice using a dodecahedral die having 12 pentagonal faces numbered 1 through 12 (figure above). One could simulate such a die by drawing a random card from a deck of cards numbered 1 through k. for your own personal value of k, begin with the largest digit in the sum of the digits in your student ID number. This is your value of k unless this digit is less than 5, in which case subtract it from 10 to get your own value of k. a.) John and Mary draw alternately from a deck of shuffled k cards. The first one to draw an ace-the card numbered one- wins. Assume that John draws first. Use the formula for the sum of a geometric series to calculate (both a rational number and a four place decimal) the probability J that John wins, and the probability M that Mary wins. Check that . b.) Now John , Mary, Paul draw alternately from a deck of k cards. Calculate separately their respective probabilities of winning, given that John draws first and Mary draw second. Check that
Answer & Explanation
Cael Cox
Beginner2022-07-23Added 11 answers
Step 1 We look at the three-person game, since it is more interesting. We also assume that the deck is shuffled between draws, in order to simulate tossing a fair k-sided die. You will find it easy to adapt the idea to the simpler 2-person game, and if you wish, to a d-person game. Let our players be A, B, and C. We suppose A tosses first, then (if necessary) B, then, if necessary, C, then, if necessary A, and so on. To make the notation simpler, let . Player A can win on the first draw, the fourth, the seventh, the tenth, and so on.The probability she wins on the first draw is p. In order for A to win on the fourth draw, A, B, and C must all fail to win on their first three draws, and then a must win. The probability of this is . In order to win on the seventh draw, A, B, C must all fail twice, and then A must win. This has probability . Step 2 Similarly, the probability A achieves her win on the tenth draw is . The probability A achieves her win on the thirteenth draw is . And so on. So the probability that A wins is The above is an infinite geometric series. Recall that the infinite geometric series has sum (if ). In our case, and , so the probability A wins is . This can be "simplified" to the less attractive expression . We could go through a very similar calculation for the probability that B wins. However, there is a shortcut. Suppose that A fails to win on her first throw (probability ). Then effectively B is now first, so has probability of winning . So the probability B wins is . A similar argument shows that the probability C wins is .
Emmanuel Pace
Beginner2022-07-24Added 6 answers
Step 1 We can avoid summing an infinite series. Let a be the probability that A ultimately wins. As discussed earlier, the way for B to win is for A to fail on her first draw. Then effectively B is the first player. So the probability B is the ultimate winner is . Similarly, the probability C is the ultimate winner is . Step 2 But it is (almost)clear that someone must ultimately win, the probability the game goes on forever is 0. It follows that , and therefore . A little calculation shows that this is the same answer as the one obtained earlier.