Conditional Geometric ProbabilityA certified public accountant (CPA) has found that nine of ten company audits contain substantial errors. If the CPA audits a series of company accounts, what is the probability that the first account containing substantial errors will occur on or after the third audited account?The answer key tells me that it should be 0.01. Shouldn't it be 0.991 since P ( Y = 3 ) = 0.009 and 1 − 0.009 = 0.991?

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Conditional Geometric ProbabilityA certified public accountant (CPA) has found that nine of ten company audits contain substantial errors. If the CPA audits a series of company accounts, what is the probability that the first account containing substantial errors will occur on or after the third audited account?The answer key tells me that it should be 0.01. Shouldn&#039;t it be 0.991 since   P  (  Y  =  3  )  =  0.009 and   1  −  0.009  =  0.991?

Elliott Rollins · Accepted Answer

Step 1Nine out of ten contain substantial errors, so the only one out of ten are okay. Thus assuming independence, the probability of passing two audits in a row is   (  1      /    10      )    2    ..Step 2Thus there is a   %  1 chance that the first two audits will be passed and that the first account containing errors will be found on or after the third audit.

A certified public accountant (CPA) has found that nine of ten company audits contain substantial errors. If the CPA audits a series of company accounts, what is the probability that the first account containing substantial errors will occur on or after the third audited account?

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