Do future events influence the probability of past events? This question came to mind when I was dealing with this question: A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are drawn at random and are found to be clubs. Find the probability that the lost card is a club. My query: The probability that a club is lost is 13/52. The next event of taking two cards from this incomplete set of cards happens after one of the cards is lost. How can this affect a past event of losing a card from the pack?

Jaydan Ball

Jaydan Ball

Open question

2022-08-31

Do future events influence the probability of past events?
This question came to mind when I was dealing with this question: A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are drawn at random and are found to be clubs. Find the probability that the lost card is a club.
My query: The probability that a club is lost is 13/52. The next event of taking two cards from this incomplete set of cards happens after one of the cards is lost. How can this affect a past event of losing a card from the pack?

Answer & Explanation

Jaylen Hickman

Jaylen Hickman

Beginner2022-09-01Added 7 answers

The event has not changed. Your information regarding the event has changed.
For instance, say you were interested if the Club Ace was lost.
Now if the two cards happen to have the Club Ace, would your estimate of the chances still be as before?
Basically, the probability is based on what information you have at hand.
Arturo Mays

Arturo Mays

Beginner2022-09-02Added 12 answers

You are confusing correlation with causation. Two variables are correlated when there is any (nontrivial) relation between them. Two variables have a causal relation when a human can control one to influence the other.
Correlation is what mathematics and science deal with. Causation is what engineers and designers deal with.
There is a correlation between the future event and the past event. But you cannot "control" the future event in a way to change the past event.

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