In a criminal trial b jury, suppose the probability the defendant is convicted, given guilt, is 0,95, and the probability the defendant is acquitted

York

York

Answered question

2021-09-07

In a criminal trial b jury, suppose the probability the defendant is convicted, given guilt, is 0,95, and the probability the defendant is acquitted , given innocence, is 0,95. Suppose that 83% of all defendants truly are guilty. Given that the defendant is convicted, find the probability he or she was actually innocent.

Answer & Explanation

oppturf

oppturf

Skilled2021-09-08Added 94 answers

Given:
P(Convicted | guilty)=0.95
P(Acquitted | innocence)=0.95
x=P(guilty)=0.83
P(Convicted | innocence)=1P(Acquitted | innocence)
=10.95=0.05
P(convicted)
=P(convicted | guilty)P(Guilty)+P(convicted | innocence)P(Innocence)
=0.95×0.83+0.05×(10.83)=0.797
P(Innocent | convicted)
=P(Convicted | innocence)P(Innocence)P(convicted)
=0.0510.830.797=0.01066
=P(Convicted | innocence)

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