I'm reading through Shape by Jordan Ellenberg and came across this claim, modeling the movement of a mosquito as a binomial distribution.
The mosquito is fixed to a straight line. Each day, it can choose to whether to fly a kilometer to the northeast or a kilometer to the southwest. It is unbiased, so each path is equally likely.
The claim is that
The chance that a mosquito on its two-hundredth day of life is at least 40km from home is just under 3 in 1000.
A footnote adds that the exact computation is
"What is the probability that a binomial random variable with and takes value at least 120?"
To cover a distance of, say 40 km northeast, the mosquito would need to have moved 120 km northeast and 80 km southwest. Representing the movement northeast as a "success", this could be the binomial distribution described above.
And that we are looking to calculate
However, it strikes me that the chance that the mosquito is at least 40km from home would be twice of this computed value, since it could be a net 40km northeast or a net 40km southwest. Am I misunderstanding the claim above or modeling the probability incorrectly?