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Recent questions in College Statistics
College StatisticsAnswered question
Llubanipo Llubanipo 2022-06-25

Use Bayes' Theorem to prove that the rate of false positives is accurate (86%) in the following passage.
What I have done so far is list the following
P ( A ) = 0.99
P ( B ) = 0.05
As Bayes' Theorem is as follows
P ( A | B ) = P ( B | A ) P ( A ) P ( B )
I need P ( B | A ). I'm stuck on how to find this. Help would be greatly appreciated.
Is it possible to prove this using Bayes'? If not, is there some other sort of mathematics that I can use here?
Roughly 1 per cent of the population suffer from mild cognitive impairment, which might, but doesn’t always, lead to dementia. Suppose that the test is quite a good one, in the sense that 95 per cent of the time it gives the right (negative) answer for people who are free of the condition. That means that 5 per cent of the people who don’t have cognitive impairment will test, falsely, as positive. That doesn’t sound bad. It’s directly analogous to tests of significance which will give 5 per cent of false positives when there is no real effect, if we use a p-value of less than 5 per cent to mean ‘statistically significant’.
But in fact the screening test is not good – it’s actually appallingly bad, because 86 per cent, not 5 per cent, of all positive tests are false positives. So only 14 per cent of positive tests are correct. This happens because most people don’t have the condition, and so the false positives from these people (5 per cent of 99 per cent of the people), outweigh the number of true positives that arise from the much smaller number of people who have the condition (80 per cent of 1 per cent of the people, if we assume 80 per cent of people with the disease are detected successfully).

College StatisticsAnswered question
Cory Patrick Cory Patrick 2022-06-25

A company produces millions of 1-pound packages of bacon every week. Company specifications allow for no more than 3 percent of the 1-pound packages to be underweight. To investigate compliance with the specifications, the company’s quality control manager selected a random sample of 1,000 packages produced in one week and found 40 packages, or 4 percent, to be underweight.
Assuming all conditions for inference are met, do the data provide convincing statistical evidence at the significance level of α = 0.05 that more than 3 percent of all the packages produced in one week are underweight?
(A) Yes, because the sample estimate of 0.04 is greater than the company specification of 0.03.
(B) Yes, because the p-value of 0.032 is less than the significance level of 0.05.
(C) Yes, because the p-value of 0.064 is greater than the significance level of 0.05.
(D) No, because the p-value of 0.032 is less than the significance level of 0.05.
(E) No, because the p-value of 0.064 is greater than the significance level of 0.05.
The answer is (B) and I was trying to understand why. My calculation was:
H a : p > 0.03
z = p ^ p 0 p 0 ( 1 p 0 ) n
z = 0.04 0.03 ( 0.03 ) ( 0.07 ) 1000
But I get a ridiculously high number. I'm confused about how to get the p-value in this case.
A two-sided t-test for a population mean is conducted of the null hypothesis H 0 : μ = 100. If a 90 percent t-interval constructed from the same sample data contains the value of 100, which of the following can be concluded about the test at a significance level of α = 0.10?
(A) The p-value is less than 0.10, and H 0 should be rejected.
(B) The p-value is less than 0.10, and H 0 should not be rejected.
(C) The p-value is greater than 0.10, and H 0 should be rejected.
(D) The p-value is greater than 0.10, and H 0 should not be rejected.
(E) There is not enough information given to make a conclusion about the p-value and H 0 .
Here the answer is D, but again I am confused. How can I find the p-value in this case?

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